TL;DR:
Winners: Waymo ($16B funding, $126B valuation, 400K+ weekly rides, 90% crash reduction, expanding to 20+ cities including Tokyo/London), Baidu Apollo Go (250K+ weekly rides in China). Losers: Cruise (pedestrian dragging incident, $1.5M fine, shut down by GM), Tesla FSD (still Level 2 supervised after 10+ years). Dark Horse: Pony.ai IPO'd at $5.25B. Policy: Korea targeting 2027 commercialization with permit-first approach. The age of autonomous mobility is here—but only for those who can actually deliver.
The $16 Billion Vote of Confidence
On February 2, 2026, Waymo closed the largest investment ever in an autonomous vehicle company: $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.
To put that in perspective, that's nearly triple their 2024 valuation of $45 billion. The funding round was led by Dragoneer Investment Group, DST Global, and Sequoia Capital—firms that don't write nine-figure checks without extensive due diligence.
What convinced them? Not promises. Not demos. Results.
The Numbers That Matter
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Weekly paid rides | 400,000+ |
| Total rides (2025) | 15 million (3x growth YoY) |
| Lifetime rides | 20+ million |
| Autonomous miles | 127 million |
| Crash reduction | 90% vs human drivers |
| Current markets | 6 US metros |
| 2026 expansion | 20+ cities globally |
"Waymo has moved beyond research milestones to achieve operational excellence," said Sequoia partner Konstantine Buhler. They're not just testing—they're operating at scale.
The company tripled its weekly paid rides in a single year while maintaining high customer satisfaction. That's the kind of scaling trajectory that justifies a $126 billion valuation.
Global Expansion: Tokyo and London
The most significant part of Waymo's announcement isn't the money—it's the geography.
For the first time, Waymo is going international. Tokyo and London are confirmed as the company's first markets outside the United States.
Why does this matter?
- Different regulations: Proving they can meet UK and Japanese safety standards validates the technology beyond US approval
- Different driving environments: Left-hand traffic (UK/Japan) vs right-hand (US), different road layouts, different driver behaviors
- Market proof: If robotaxis work in dense Asian megacities and historic European capitals, they work anywhere
In the US, Waymo plans to expand to Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami, Nashville, Orlando, San Antonio, San Diego, and Washington D.C. throughout 2026.
That's 20+ new cities in a single year.
The China Factor: Baidu Apollo Go Matches the Pace
While Waymo dominates Western headlines, Baidu's Apollo Go has quietly become an operational giant.
As of late 2025, Apollo Go delivers:
- 250,000+ fully driverless rides per week (matching Waymo's scale)
- 17+ million lifetime rides
- 3.1 million rides in Q3 2025 alone
- Operating in ~20 cities across China
The difference? Apollo Go operates almost entirely within China's domestic market. But that's changing: Baidu signed a deal with Lyft to deploy 1,000 robotaxis in the US by 2026.
Unlike the US, where regulations move slowly, China's central government has actively supported autonomous vehicle deployment. Cities like Wuhan, Beijing, and Shenzhen have dedicated robotaxi zones with streamlined permits.
This is no longer a US vs China race. It's a Waymo vs Apollo Go race, with everyone else far behind.
The Spectacular Failure of Cruise
If Waymo represents what's possible, Cruise represents what happens when you rush.
On October 2, 2023, a Cruise robotaxi in San Francisco struck a pedestrian who had been thrown into its path by a hit-and-run driver. The Cruise vehicle didn't just stop—it dragged the pedestrian 20 feet to the curb at 7 mph while attempting to "pull over safely."
The technical failure was bad. The cover-up was worse.
Cruise initially failed to disclose the full incident to the NHTSA. When regulators found out, California's DMV immediately suspended Cruise's permit. The company eventually paid a $1.5 million penalty.
GM, Cruise's parent company, shut down the robotaxi program entirely and pivoted to ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems)—essentially giving up on Level 4 autonomy.
The lesson? Trust is fragile in autonomous driving. One incident, poorly handled, can collapse years of progress.
Tesla FSD: Still Level 2 After All These Years
Elon Musk has been promising "full self-driving next year" since 2016.
In 2026, Tesla FSD is still Level 2. It still requires constant driver supervision. Tesla's own website states: "Currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous."
The "(Supervised)" label isn't marketing—it's a legal requirement.
Tesla's approach differs fundamentally from Waymo and Cruise:
- No LiDAR: Vision-only sensing using cameras
- Consumer deployment: Selling software to millions of car owners rather than operating a fleet
- Shadow mode learning: Learning from millions of vehicles but not operating autonomously
FSD is impressive as an ADAS system. It can navigate complex urban environments with supervision. But it is not, and will not be in the near future, a Level 4 autonomous system that can operate without a driver.
The gap between FSD and Waymo isn't software—it's philosophy and infrastructure.
Pony.ai: The IPO Test
In November 2024, Chinese autonomous vehicle company Pony.ai went public on Nasdaq with a $5.25 billion valuation.
That's down from its $7 billion private valuation—a sign that public markets are more skeptical than private investors.
Pony.ai operates robotaxi services in China (Guangzhou, Beijing, Shenzhen) and is testing in the US (California). Unlike Waymo or Apollo Go, Pony.ai hasn't achieved massive weekly ride volumes yet.
The IPO represents a bet that Pony.ai can scale before the market becomes winner-take-all. With Waymo and Apollo Go pulling ahead, that window is closing fast.
Korea's Bold Policy Bet
South Korea is taking a different approach: permit-first, questions later.
In 2026, Korea passed regulations classifying Level 4+ autonomous vehicles as "high-impact AI systems" subject to safety oversight. But instead of blocking deployment, the government is actively targeting 2027 for full commercial rollout.
The strategy:
- Issue permits to qualified operators
- Allow commercial operation in designated zones
- Expand as safety data validates the technology
Korea wants to be the first nation with nationwide Level 4 deployment—not by building the technology (they're partnering with global players), but by creating the regulatory environment.
It's a risky bet, but if it works, Korea could become the world's first "autonomous-ready" country.
Safety: The Stat That Matters
All the funding, valuations, and city expansions mean nothing if autonomous vehicles aren't safer than human drivers.
Waymo's data shows 90% fewer serious injury crashes compared to human drivers over 127 million miles.
To put that in context:
- Human drivers in the US: ~1.3 deaths per 100 million miles
- Waymo's serious injury crash rate: 90% lower
That's not "statistically equivalent." That's dramatically safer.
The data is still being studied by independent researchers, but early indications suggest that well-engineered Level 4 systems like Waymo's are not just as safe as humans—they're significantly safer.
What 2026 Means for Autonomous Driving
The hype is over. The deployment has begun.
- Waymo is expanding to 20+ cities globally with operational scale (400K+ rides/week)
- Apollo Go is matching that scale in China and entering the US market
- Cruise is gone, a cautionary tale about rushing to market
- Tesla FSD remains an advanced ADAS, not Level 4 autonomy
- Pony.ai is the wildcard, public and under pressure to scale
The winners aren't the ones with the best marketing or the most vocal CEOs. They're the ones with millions of real rides, positive safety data, and the trust of regulators.
If you live in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, or Austin, you can already hail a Waymo with no driver. By the end of 2026, that list will include Miami, Dallas, Tokyo, and London.
The robotaxi future isn't 10 years away. It's not 5 years away.
It's here.
The only question now is how fast the rest of the world catches up.
Curious about Level 4 autonomy in your city? Track Waymo's expansion at waymo.com or try Apollo Go if you're in China. The future of transportation is driverless—and it's arriving faster than anyone expected.